Edge Finder

Model predictions vs. sportsbook odds — find where the value is.

Disclaimer: This tool is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Fights Analyzed

Value Bets Found

Highest Edge

33.4%Tallison Teixeira

Min Edge%

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

HeavyweightLOW Confidence

#3 Ranked

Prediction

47.0%

Sergei Pavlovich

Sportsbook

-550

Expected EV

-44.5%

#3 Ranked

Sergei Pavlovich

20-3-0 Record

Market Odds

-55084.6% implied

Expected Value

-44.5% EV

47.0%Prediction

-37.6% EDGE

Value

#11 Ranked

Tallison Teixeira

Sportsbook

+410

Expected EV

+170.3%

Our Prediction

53.0%

+33.4% EDGE

#11 Ranked

Tallison Teixeira

9-1-0 Record

Expected Value

+170.3% EV

Market Odds

19.6% implied+410

Prediction53.0%

+33.4% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 66%

Decision 31%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

BantamweightHIGH Confidence

Prediction

37.8%

Kai Asakura

Sportsbook

-305

Expected EV

-49.8%

Kai Asakura

21-6-0 Record

Market Odds

-30575.3% implied

Expected Value

-49.8% EV

37.8%Prediction

-37.5% EDGE

Value

Cameron Smotherman

Sportsbook

+245

Expected EV

+114.6%

Our Prediction

62.2%

+33.2% EDGE

Cameron Smotherman

12-6-0 Record

Expected Value

+114.6% EV

Market Odds

29.0% implied+245

Prediction62.2%

+33.2% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 89%

KO/TKO 7%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

BantamweightMEDIUM Confidence

#3 Ranked

Prediction

43.2%

Sean O'Malley

Sportsbook

-395

Expected EV

-45.9%

#3 Ranked

Sean O'Malley

19-3-0 Record

Market Odds

-39579.8% implied

Expected Value

-45.9% EV

43.2%Prediction

-36.6% EDGE

Value

#6 Ranked

Aiemann Zahabi

Sportsbook

+310

Expected EV

+132.9%

Our Prediction

56.8%

+32.4% EDGE

#6 Ranked

Aiemann Zahabi

14-2-0 Record

Expected Value

+132.9% EV

Market Odds

24.4% implied+310

Prediction56.8%

+32.4% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 91%

KO/TKO 6%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

FeatherweightHIGH Confidence

#2 Ranked

Prediction

32.0%

Diego Lopes

Sportsbook

-185

Expected EV

-50.7%

#2 Ranked

Diego Lopes

27-8-0 Record

Market Odds

-18564.9% implied

Expected Value

-50.7% EV

32.0%Prediction

-32.9% EDGE

Value

#9 Ranked

Steve Garcia

Sportsbook

+154

Expected EV

+72.7%

Our Prediction

68.0%

+28.6% EDGE

#9 Ranked

Steve Garcia

19-5-0 Record

Expected Value

+72.7% EV

Market Odds

39.4% implied+154

Prediction68.0%

+28.6% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 75%

Decision 22%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

FlyweightHIGH Confidence

Prediction

41.3%

Rei Tsuruya

Sportsbook

-270

Expected EV

-43.4%

Rei Tsuruya

10-1-0 Record

Market Odds

-27073.0% implied

Expected Value

-43.4% EV

41.3%Prediction

-31.7% EDGE

Value

Jesus Aguilar

Sportsbook

+220

Expected EV

+87.8%

Our Prediction

58.7%

+27.4% EDGE

Jesus Aguilar

12-3-0 Record

Expected Value

+87.8% EV

Market Odds

31.3% implied+220

Prediction58.7%

+27.4% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

SUB 48%

Decision 46%

KO/TKO 6%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

LightweightHIGH Confidence

Champion

Prediction

67.4%

Ilia Topuria

Sportsbook

-800

Expected EV

-24.2%

Champion

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0 Record

Market Odds

-80088.9% implied

Expected Value

-24.2% EV

67.4%Prediction

-21.5% EDGE

Value

#1 Ranked

Justin Gaethje

Sportsbook

+550

Expected EV

+111.9%

Our Prediction

32.6%

+17.2% EDGE

#1 Ranked

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0 Record

Expected Value

+111.9% EV

Market Odds

15.4% implied+550

Prediction32.6%

+17.2% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 76%

Decision 21%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

BantamweightHIGH Confidence

#5 Ranked

Prediction

65.7%

Song Yadong

Sportsbook

-600

Expected EV

-23.3%

#5 Ranked

Song Yadong

22-9-1 Record

Market Odds

-60085.7% implied

Expected Value

-23.3% EV

65.7%Prediction

-20.0% EDGE

Value

#7 Ranked

Deiveson Figueiredo

Sportsbook

+440

Expected EV

+85.2%

Our Prediction

34.3%

+15.8% EDGE

#7 Ranked

Deiveson Figueiredo

25-6-1 Record

Expected Value

+85.2% EV

Market Odds

18.5% implied+440

Prediction34.3%

+15.8% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 87%

KO/TKO 10%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

LightweightHIGH Confidence

#9 Ranked

Prediction

71.8%

Mauricio Ruffy

Sportsbook

-600

Expected EV

-16.2%

#9 Ranked

Mauricio Ruffy

13-2-0 Record

Market Odds

-60085.7% implied

Expected Value

-16.2% EV

71.8%Prediction

-13.9% EDGE

Value

#13 Ranked

Michael Chandler

Sportsbook

+440

Expected EV

+52.3%

Our Prediction

28.2%

+9.7% EDGE

#13 Ranked

Michael Chandler

23-10-0 Record

Expected Value

+52.3% EV

Market Odds

18.5% implied+440

Prediction28.2%

+9.7% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 71%

Decision 26%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2Jul 11, 2026

LightweightHIGH Confidence

Value

#5 Ranked

Benoit Saint Denis

Sportsbook

-180

Expected EV

+14.2%

Our Prediction

73.4%

+9.1% EDGE

#5 Ranked

Benoit Saint Denis

17-3-0 Record

Market Odds

-18064.3% implied

Expected Value

+14.2% EV

73.4%Prediction

+9.1% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

#6 Ranked

Prediction

26.6%

Paddy Pimblett

Sportsbook

+150

Expected EV

-33.5%

#6 Ranked

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0 Record

Expected Value

-33.5% EV

Market Odds

40.0% implied+150

Prediction26.6%

-13.4% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

SUB 49%

KO/TKO 41%

Decision 10%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2Jul 11, 2026

FlyweightLOW Confidence

Value

#4 Ranked

Brandon Royval

Sportsbook

+142

Expected EV

+20.0%

Our Prediction

49.6%

+8.3% EDGE

#4 Ranked

Brandon Royval

17-9-0 Record

Market Odds

+14241.3% implied

Expected Value

+20.0% EV

49.6%Prediction

+8.3% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

#15 Ranked

Prediction

50.4%

Lone'er Kavanagh

Sportsbook

-170

Expected EV

-20.0%

#15 Ranked

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-1-0 Record

Expected Value

-20.0% EV

Market Odds

63.0% implied-170

Prediction50.4%

-12.6% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 90%

KO/TKO 6%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

HeavyweightHIGH Confidence

Value

Champion

Alex Pereira

Sportsbook

-110

Expected EV

+14.7%

Our Prediction

60.1%

+7.7% EDGE

Champion

Alex Pereira

13-3-0 Record

Market Odds

-11052.4% implied

Expected Value

+14.7% EV

60.1%Prediction

+7.7% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

#1 Ranked

Prediction

39.9%

Ciryl Gane

Sportsbook

-110

Expected EV

-23.8%

#1 Ranked

Ciryl Gane

13-2-0 Record

Expected Value

-23.8% EV

Market Odds

52.4% implied-110

Prediction39.9%

-12.5% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 87%

Decision 10%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

WelterweightHIGH Confidence

Prediction

41.9%

Muslim Salikhov

Sportsbook

-118

Expected EV

-22.6%

Muslim Salikhov

22-6-0 Record

Market Odds

-11854.1% implied

Expected Value

-22.6% EV

41.9%Prediction

-12.2% EDGE

Value

Jake Matthews

Sportsbook

-102

Expected EV

+15.1%

Our Prediction

58.1%

+7.6% EDGE

Jake Matthews

22-8-0 Record

Expected Value

+15.1% EV

Market Odds

50.5% implied-102

Prediction58.1%

+7.6% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 59%

SUB 35%

KO/TKO 7%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

FlyweightHIGH Confidence

Value

#10 Ranked

Alex Perez

Sportsbook

-135

Expected EV

+10.7%

Our Prediction

63.6%

+6.2% EDGE

#10 Ranked

Alex Perez

26-10-0 Record

Market Odds

-13557.4% implied

Expected Value

+10.7% EV

63.6%Prediction

+6.2% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Prediction

36.4%

Sumudaerji

Sportsbook

+114

Expected EV

-22.1%

Sumudaerji

18-7-0 Record

Expected Value

-22.1% EV

Market Odds

46.7% implied+114

Prediction36.4%

-10.3% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 77%

Decision 15%

SUB 8%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

MiddleweightHIGH Confidence

Prediction

65.3%

Bo Nickal

Sportsbook

-310

Expected EV

-13.6%

Bo Nickal

8-1-0 Record

Market Odds

-31075.6% implied

Expected Value

-13.6% EV

65.3%Prediction

-10.3% EDGE

Value

Kyle Daukaus

Sportsbook

+250

Expected EV

+21.4%

Our Prediction

34.7%

+6.1% EDGE

Kyle Daukaus

17-4-0 Record

Expected Value

+21.4% EV

Market Odds

28.6% implied+250

Prediction34.7%

+6.1% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 36%

Decision 35%

SUB 29%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2Jul 11, 2026

BantamweightLOW Confidence

#4 Ranked

Prediction

50.4%

Cory Sandhagen

Sportsbook

-155

Expected EV

-17.1%

#4 Ranked

Cory Sandhagen

18-6-0 Record

Market Odds

-15560.8% implied

Expected Value

-17.1% EV

50.4%Prediction

-10.4% EDGE

Value

#9 Ranked

Mario Bautista

Sportsbook

+130

Expected EV

+14.1%

Our Prediction

49.6%

+6.1% EDGE

#9 Ranked

Mario Bautista

16-3-0 Record

Expected Value

+14.1% EV

Market Odds

43.5% implied+130

Prediction49.6%

+6.1% EDGE

Value Bet Recommended

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 49%

KO/TKO 47%

SUB 4%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Freedom 250Jun 14, 2026

HeavyweightHIGH Confidence

Prediction

80.5%

Josh Hokit

Sportsbook

-360

Expected EV

+2.9%

Josh Hokit

8-0-0 Record

Market Odds

-36078.3% implied

Expected Value

+2.9% EV

80.5%Prediction

+2.2% EDGE

#9 Ranked

Prediction

19.5%

Derrick Lewis

Sportsbook

+285

Expected EV

-24.9%

#9 Ranked

Derrick Lewis

29-13-0 Record

Expected Value

-24.9% EV

Market Odds

26.0% implied+285

Prediction19.5%

-6.5% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 77%

Decision 20%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

StrawweightLOW Confidence

Prediction

50.6%

Loma Lookboonmee

Sportsbook

-105

Expected EV

-1.2%

Loma Lookboonmee

10-4-0 Record

Market Odds

-10551.2% implied

Expected Value

-1.2% EV

50.6%Prediction

-0.6% EDGE

Prediction

49.4%

Jaqueline Amorim

Sportsbook

-115

Expected EV

-7.6%

Jaqueline Amorim

10-2-0 Record

Expected Value

-7.6% EV

Market Odds

53.5% implied-115

Prediction49.4%

-4.1% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

Decision 57%

SUB 38%

KO/TKO 6%

Provider: DraftKings

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoMay 30, 2026

Light HeavyweightHIGH Confidence

#14 Ranked

Prediction

66.2%

Zhang Mingyang

Sportsbook

-225

Expected EV

-4.4%

#14 Ranked

Zhang Mingyang

19-7-0 Record

Market Odds

-22569.2% implied

Expected Value

-4.4% EV

66.2%Prediction

-3.0% EDGE

#15 Ranked

Prediction

33.8%

Alonzo Menifield

Sportsbook

+185

Expected EV

-3.7%

#15 Ranked

Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1 Record

Expected Value

-3.7% EV

Market Odds

35.1% implied+185

Prediction33.8%

-1.3% EDGE

Victory MethodsDraftKings

KO/TKO 87%

Decision 10%

SUB 3%

Provider: DraftKings

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