How well the prediction model performs against actual fight outcomes.
Does our confidence rating actually predict accuracy? Higher tiers should win more often.
Accuracy across weight divisions — where the model performs best and worst.
| Event | Fight | Prediction | Actual | Result | Method | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Marcin Tybura(57%) | Tyrell Fortune | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Michael Chiesa(67%) | Michael Chiesa | SUB | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Ignacio Bahamondes(80%) | Tofiq Musayev | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Alexia Thainara(77%) | Alexia Thainara | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai | Myktybek Orolbai(65%) | Myktybek Orolbai | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders | Eryk Anders(70%) | Eryk Anders | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Diyar Nurgozhay(64%) | Diyar Nurgozhay | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Donte Johnson(52%) | Donte Johnson | SUB → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite | Ernesta Kareckaite(70%) | Regina Tarin | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson(67%) | Drew Dober | DEC → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Mario Pinto(81%) | Mario Pinto | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Andre Fili vs Jose Delgado | Jose Delgado(62%) | Jose Delgado | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Alberto Montes(60%) | Alberto Montes | DEC → SUB | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund | Vitor Petrino(51%) | Vitor Petrino | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Maycee Barber(73%) | Alexa Grasso | DEC → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Chase Hooper(72%) | Lance Gibson Jr. | SUB → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Navajo Stirling(69%) | Navajo Stirling | DEC → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Terrance McKinney(52%) | Terrance McKinney | SUB → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Joe Pyfer(54%) | Joe Pyfer | KO/TKO | MEDIUM | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Julian Erosa(72%) | Lerryan Douglas | SUB → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Casey O'Neill(61%) | Casey O'Neill | DEC → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui | Mansur Abdul-Malik(50%) | Yousri Belgaroui | KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Nathaniel Wood(73%) | Nathaniel Wood | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Louie Sutherland vs Brando Pericic | Brando Pericic(87%) | Brando Pericic | KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli | Mantas Kondratavicius(64%) | Mantas Kondratavicius | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Shem Rock(53%) | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Ravena Oliveira(52%) | Shanelle Dyer | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Lerone Murphy(57%) | Movsar Evloev | DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Michael Aswell Jr.(64%) | Luke Riley | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Michael Page vs Sam Patterson | Sam Patterson(68%) | Michael Page | SUB → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Danny Silva(73%) | Danny Silva | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Iwo Baraniewski(68%) | Iwo Baraniewski | KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Christian Leroy Duncan(69%) | Christian Leroy Duncan | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Mason Jones(62%) | Mason Jones | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Elijah Smith vs SuYoung You | Elijah Smith(52%) | Elijah Smith | DEC → SUB | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Bolaji Oki vs Manoel Sousa | Bolaji Oki(67%) | Manoel Sousa | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos | Kevin Vallejos(73%) | Kevin Vallejos | KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson | Gillian Robertson(62%) | Gillian Robertson | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Ion Cutelaba vs Oumar Sy | Oumar Sy(76%) | Ion Cutelaba | DEC → SUB | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick | Marwan Rahiki(52%) | Marwan Rahiki | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa | Luan Lacerda(65%) | Hecher Sosa | SUB → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Bia Mesquita vs Montse Rendon | Bia Mesquita(63%) | Bia Mesquita | SUB | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes | Sam Hughes(58%) | Piera Rodriguez | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | Charles Johnson vs Bruno Silva | Bruno Silva(54%) | Charles Johnson | SUB → DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Caio Borralho(65%) | Caio Borralho | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Cody Durden(56%) | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | SUB → DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Raul Rosas Jr.(54%) | Raul Rosas Jr. | DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Gregory Rodrigues(57%) | Gregory Rodrigues | DEC → KO/TKO | MEDIUM | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Rodolfo Bellato(69%) | Rodolfo Bellato | KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Sumudaerji(52%) | Sumudaerji | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Max Holloway(67%) | Charles Oliveira | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Xiao Long(61%) | Cody Garbrandt | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Francis Marshall(77%) | Francis Marshall | DEC → SUB | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Wes Schultz(57%) | Damian Pinas | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Santiago Luna(73%) | Santiago Luna | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Macy Chiasson(52%) | Ailin Perez | SUB → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh | Lone'er Kavanagh(53%) | Lone'er Kavanagh | DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | David Martinez(62%) | David Martinez | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Daniel Zellhuber(60%) | King Green | SUB → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Edgar Chairez(53%) | Edgar Chairez | SUB → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Kevin Borjas(63%) | Imanol Rodriguez | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Ryan Gandra(63%) | Ryan Gandra | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho | Cristian Quinonez(54%) | Cristian Quinonez | DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Javier Reyes(59%) | Javier Reyes | DEC → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Phil Rowe vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Phil Rowe(58%) | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards | Joselyne Edwards(70%) | Joselyne Edwards | KO/TKO → SUB | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano | Punahele Soriano(70%) | Punahele Soriano | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez | Anthony Hernandez(76%) | Sean Strickland | SUB → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell | Jacobe Smith(79%) | Jacobe Smith | SUB → KO/TKO | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija | Ante Delija(53%) | Serghei Spivac | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule | Alden Coria(72%) | Alden Coria | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris | Ode Osbourne(68%) | Alibi Idiris | KO/TKO → DEC | LOW | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice | Carli Judice(82%) | Carli Judice | KO/TKO → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal | Chidi Njokuani(57%) | Carlos Leal | DEC | MEDIUM | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle | Yadier del Valle(69%) | Jordan Leavitt | SUB → DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira | Zach Reese(69%) | Michel Pereira | DEC | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa | Melquizael Costa(68%) | Melquizael Costa | DEC → KO/TKO | HIGH | |
| UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic | Geoff Neal(50%) | Uros Medic | KO/TKO | LOW |